This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some decent competitions for us for this Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k goes to 1st place, and there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that final contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 50 or so entries at the $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games. With that said, let us get to some plays I enjoy too as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the most powerful play on the slate, in my opinion. I believe he’ll be the fighter anywhere this fight moves, and he must dominate. I like locking that triumph in my cash match and I think he has a fantastic chance at getting 10x his $9.4additional salary. I really do expect him to be hot in tournaments so in the event that you would like to fade the possession there and attempt to be more contrarian, I’d definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is tough so that he could last all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque could score from the 80s and that won’t win any GPPs. However, we could use an ~80-point triumph in money games since we only have to beat half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP drama of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week due to the chances. A little more than a week ago he had been a -255 favored and that’s what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the value is on Ngannou in his $7.2k price tag. I expect Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he will kill off near half the field. Furthermore, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his ownership to go down the longer his gambling line reduces and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He does have a 0-point flooring, therefore that I do not care for him in money game, however for GPPs we need boom or float to attempt to reach this 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favourite dog of the week. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he’s just a +125 underdog. I think he’s a fantastic chance of winning this battle and I am choosing him to get his hand raised. I anticipate this to be an extremely close battle, but I believe Fili is going to be the fighter striking in the greater rate and that’s precisely what I believe gets it done for him on the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili having 100+ stage upside down but we do not really need that at his $7.4k price label. I believe he has a good shot at getting at 10x, so he’s playable in most formats for me.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I believe have difficulty seeing her about the 20k lineup at her salary. I like the $9k range much greater than her and they all have higher ceilings with their grappling-based game plans. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC debut, but that is because she didn’t use grappling there. I don’t see her doing that in this game because I presume Evans-Smith has got the edge on the floor and she should be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee will win this battle, then she’s going to have to get it done on the feet and I don’t see her having a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she will be super low possessed, and it will make your lineup , but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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